Analysts predict a surge in gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The impact on domestic prices will depend on the conflict's duration, with geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data also playing a role.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd is estimated to have earned 724 million euros (about Rs 6,850 crore) from exporting fuel made from Russian crude oil to the US in one year, an European think tank said in a report. "From January 2024 to the end of January 2025, the US imported EUR 2.8 billion of refined oil from six refineries in India and Turkey that process Russian crude.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
Iran has not closed the Strait. It remains open; however, due to current conditions and circumstances, ships are unable to pass through the Hormuz. Otherwise, Iran never wanted the Strait to be closed or blocked, the supreme leader's representative said.
India offset the decline in exports to traditional destinations by sharply ramping up shipments to Jordan (18,086 per cent), Hong Kong (17,006 per cent), Spain (13,436 per cent), the Philippines (2,235 per cent), and Namibia (1,068 per cent) in H1FY26.
Declining crude price translates into lower under-recoveries for OMCs
Shares of Oil marketing companies (OMCs) extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday after crude oil prices plunged to six-month lows in the international markets, which boosted investor sentiments. Traders said the OMC stocks gained with crude oil prices hovering below $70 per barrel after OPEC-plus decision to increase output from April, a move which is expected to favour Indian refiners with added marketing margins on retail fuel.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Amidst rising Middle East tensions, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar highlights India's strategic dialogue with Iran to safeguard maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring India's energy security and continued oil trade.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to a record high of 15.88 per cent in May on rising prices of food items and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 15.08 per cent in April and 13.11 per cent in May last year. "The high rate of inflation in May, 2022 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, basic metals, non-food articles, chemicals & chemical products and food products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
Oil firms' borrowings could fall by up to Rs 15,000 cr, govt's subsidy bill by 12% .
The Indian government has increased measures to secure fuel and gas supplies following the Strait of Hormuz closure, urging citizens to avoid panic buying. Refineries are operating at high capacity, and sufficient stocks of petrol and diesel are available nationwide.
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has travelled to Russia to hold crucial talks on bilateral energy and defence ties and to prepare ground for Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India later this year.
India and the US have decided to reschedule their meeting to finalize the interim trade pact due to recent developments and implications, including changes in US tariffs.
Russia has a "special mechanism" to confront any challenge arising out of the US slapping punitive measures against India for its procurement of Russian crude oil, Russian charge d'affaires Roman Babushkin said on Wednesday.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
India will ship its share of crude oil from Russian oilfield Sakhalin-I in October-December, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Dinsha Patel said on Thursday.
India imports nearly 60 percent of its LPG, with most cargo previously coming through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for commercial shipping.
Following a Supreme Court setback, Donald Trump has announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, impacting international trade relations and raising concerns about economic repercussions.
The US Department of the Treasury on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in an effort to pressure the Kremlin to end its war in Ukraine.
India is the 4th largest oil consumer after the US, China and Japan.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, falling over 1 per cent due to foreign fund outflows and global uncertainties.
Two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his visit to India, during which he assured that Moscow would remain a reliable energy supplier, the Kremlin on Monday said that India, as a sovereign nation, is free to buy oil from sources it deems beneficial. It expressed confidence that New Delhi will continue to prioritise its economic interests.
Oil subsidies to fall 44% in FY15.
Growth of eight key infrastructure sectors remained flat in October as expansion in output of petroleum refinery products, fertiliser and steel was offset by a contraction in coal and electricity production, according to official data released on Thursday.
A senior Russian diplomat has called the US pressure on India for its procurement of Russian crude oil "unjustified," expressing confidence in continued energy cooperation between India and Russia despite external pressures.
India and the US have agreed to a trade deal that will see Washington reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, according to US President Donald Trump. The deal also includes commitments from India to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the US and to increase purchases of American products.
Vance also hinted that the US may drop additional tariffs on countries if the US make a deal with Russia, and also apply more tariffs on the countries to bring this war to a close.
With Iran reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme, India is expected to be one of the major gainers.
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